Is India Already in Recession or entering recession. I will try to discuss the here.
What is recession ?
A recession is when the economy declines significantly for at least six months. That means there’s a drop in the following five economic indicators: real GDP, income, employment, manufacturing and retail sales.
All the above five indicators are interconnected. a recession is usualy spans for two or more quarters
What are its signs ?
The first sign of an impending recession occurs in one of the leading economic indicators such as manufacturing jobs. Manufacturers receive large orders months in advance. That’s measured by the durable goods order report. If that declines over time, so will factory jobs. When manufacturers stop hiring, it means other sectors of the economy will slow.
A fall-off in consumer demand is normally the culprit behind slowing growth. As sales drop off, businesses stop expanding. Soon afterward they stop hiring new workers. By this time, the recession is usually underway.
A recession becomes a depression if it lasts long enough. A depression will last several years.
Lets see the indicators
Based on GDP, India said to be the fastest growing economy in the world
, having a growth rate of over 7 percent. But there is a grim part of to growth story too, i.e. unemployment. T
The lack of employment growth with respect to the GDP smells something fishy, should the GDP number be manipulated !
Modi’s wrong policys like demonetisation, ban on cow slaughter, bumpy GST rollout, etc has further deteriorated the situation of the job market.
Programmes in paper and ads
Modi’s flagship programmes like Smart City, Make in India, Skill India, Startup India, Digital India are more launched with big fund but what is the output, no report card .
India ranked a low 130th in World Bank’s rankings of 185 economies in October 2016.
Demonetisation and GST
India’s growth story has taken a pause - a rather long pause.
The past two quarters have been a washout, because of demonetisation, and the outlook for the remaining part of this calendar year is overshadowed by disruptions caused by the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST).
NPA a.k.a Bad Loans keeps the economy from turning around fast is the sharp erosion in the ability of the banks in the country to lend for growth. A sustained accumulation of bad loans, or non-performing assets, which now stand at an alarming 9.6% of total lending, has left most banks, especially in the public sector, shy of financing new projects.